While the global smartphone chip market is bracing for a downturn in 2026, Samsung Electronics is emerging as a notable outlier. According to the latest analysis from Counterpoint Research, Samsung may be the only SoC manufacturer to record production growth, standing in stark contrast to the broader industry trend.

Specifically, global smartphone SoC shipments are projected to drop by approximately 7% year-on-year in 2026. This decline is primarily driven by surging memory prices, which have inflated manufacturing costs and retail prices, subsequently dampening consumer demand for device upgrades. Additionally, the AI boom has shifted memory demand heavily toward servers, placing further pressure on the mobile market supply chain.

This downturn is impacting most major players. MediaTek is forecast to see a decline of around 8%, followed by Qualcomm at 9% and Apple at 6%, while Unisoc could face a steep drop of up to 14%. Conversely, Samsung remains the sole bright spot, projected to grow by approximately 7%.

The driving force behind Samsung’s ability to buck the market trend is the Exynos 2600. Reports indicate that Samsung is likely to expand the deployment of the Exynos 2600 in its Galaxy S26 and S26 Plus models across key markets when the series launches in March 2026. Concurrently, the company continues its strategy of utilizing Exynos chips in mid-range smartphones, further boosting total SoC volume.

This push for Exynos carries significance beyond the mobile division; it also positively impacts Samsung Foundry, the unit responsible for chip manufacturing. As the global smartphone chip market shrinks, this "homegrown" SoC strategy provides Samsung with a distinct competitive advantage while optimizing operational efficiency within its semiconductor value chain.

Counterpoint Research concludes that while 2026 will be a challenging year for most smartphone chipmakers, Samsung stands as the exception, effectively leveraging Exynos to sustain growth in a pressure-laden market.